See more in every South African race

Free horse racing picks for today's South African cards: tote pool share plus sixteen form layers measured on 2,991 races, for every South African track carried on the Turkish tote. Our ranks are written before the first race and scored after it: the record.

3 days on file · walk-forward test on 2,391 races out of sample · how it scored

Mon 5 Oct 2026No card published yet · the next one appears the evening before racingWritten Sun 04 Oct 2026, 20:16 SAST · permalink

No South African card up yet

TJK publishes foreign cards the evening before. Until then, browse the archive.

What the numbers mean

Pool share and edge

The Turkish tote (TJK) takes bets on South African racing; each runner's share of that win pool is the market's opinion, published before the off. The model starts from that share and adjusts it with sixteen form layers (trainer, jockey, sire, damsire, owner, last finish, form, days since, head-to-head, track record, draw, rating, weight, age, depth of history). Edge is the model probability minus the pool-implied probability, in points. A positive edge means the model likes the horse more than the crowd does.

How the model was tested

Weights were fitted by conditional logit on 2,991 South African races and tested walk-forward: each block scored with weights fitted only on earlier races, 2,391 races out of sample. On its own the model does not beat the pool (-5.8 pts top-3); combined with it, top-3 coverage moves +0.2 pts and likelihood improves. Verdict: passed (marginal). The gain is calibration, not coverage: the record page shows exactly how it performs.

Layer weights: piyasa +0.80 · form3 +0.39 · jokey +0.23 · son_bitis -0.22 · draw -0.21 · aygir +0.14 · antrenor +0.10 · damsire +0.10 · hp -0.08 · sahip +0.05 · kgs +0.04 · h2h +0.03 · n_gecmis -0.02 · adres +0.02 · siklet +0.01 · yas +0.00 · son_fark +0.00

Usable, thin, blind

A race is usable when at least 70% of runners have South African form on file and the field averages two or more runs; thin at 40%; otherwise blind, where no verdict is given and the order shown is the market's. Before the pool opens (TJK opens it on race morning) every race is blind.